Gazing Into the Crystal Ball Of 2012 Presidential Politics

I wasn't ever gonna say anything about the following, but the nauseating ESPN hype-machine has forced me to. The UConn lady Huskies have "tied" the John Wooden led UCLA Bruins all-time consecutive win streak at 88. And first of all, congratulations to these Husky ladies - well done. Blah, blah, blah. But to in any way compare the 2 streaks is absurd. And insulting to any reasonable fan's intelligence. The only way these 2 streaks are similar is numerical. Other than that, it's like comparing apples to dildos or something like dildos. Comparing the 2 accomplishments is akin to saying that Sadaharu Oh is the greatest home run hitter of all time at 868. Or like asserting that Dick Trickle is the greatest race car driver of all time because he won 1,000 short track races in his career around the Midwest. You simply can't compare the streak that the Husky ladies enjoy with anything that has happened in men's basketball. But, according to ESPN, there is some asinine equivalence between the 2. It's laughable and, although we didn't need it, further proof that the shameless ESPN hype-machine is a farce.

I promised back in the summer that I was gonna handicap the 2012 race for the White House before the end of the year. And today seems as good as any day to do so, considering that the year is not yet over and all.

First on the Democrat Party side of things, it will be Barry running again. I wasn't too sure of this for many months. But Barry's actions the past 6 weeks clearly indicate he plans to seek another term. He's been very slick in turning on his own lefty base and cutting a deal with the GOP over tax rates. Now, Barry could well be challenged in the primaries if he continues a move to the center, or the more reasonable as I like to call it. But he need not worry about a challenger. The only type of person who would be foolish enough to challenge Barry is Howard Dean or a Howard Dean type. And that type of way out "progressive" appeals to about 1/3 of the Democrat Party and about an 1/8 of the general electorate. In other words, Dean or the Dean-like candidacy would be dead in the water, a nonstarter. Barry wouldn't even have to show up once in New Hampshire to crush such an insurgency. So, barring something terribly unforeseen, it will be Barry. And I'd say this, as far as Barry getting a 2nd term: it depends on 2 factors, 1) who his opponent is (which I'm about to get to) a 2) how far Barry is willing to go to compromise with voters' wishes and sign GOP driven legislation. If Barry continues down the path he's currently going as far as rebuking the nutty ideas so prevalent in the left-wing of his party, he has a decent shot. He really does. Only time will tell. I'd pay particular attention to what goes down between January and August of next year as far as seeing just how much Barry is willing to be flexible with his own espoused beliefs. It will be interesting. Now, if things don't go so well and Barry acquiesces to the fringe of the Democrat Party, the GOP will have a good chance to unseat him. IF THEY NOMINATE THE RIGHT PERSON...

Which brings me to the Republicans. No one has officially announced yet. So what you are about to read is admittedly speculation on my part. But informed speculation. Speculation that should carry some weight based on my track record on this blog the past 2 years predicting what is gonna happen politically. First, eliminate any sitting senators from consideration. They can't win for the GOP. McCain and Dole being the most recent 2 examples. Maybe, maybe, maybe down the line a Rubio could be a very desirable candidate for the Republicans. But not in 22 and 1/2 months. Let's see what the guy does the next 6 years. I'm cautiously optimistic Rubio will be very good. Anyway, as I said, eliminate senators for 2012. The Grahams, DeMints, Coburns- they have no shot. So, we need to look at governors and ex-governors. And that's where all the real challengers are for Barry's job. In order to win the White House a Republican candidate is gonna have to perform similarly to W in 2004. The 3 most important states are still gonna be Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida (all wins for Barry last time). So, the GOP must nominate someone who can take 2 of the 3 and win all the other states W won against John Kerry. Which governor or ex-governor is best suited to do so? Let's eliminate them one by one. Mike Huckabee - I wouldn't bet on him. He's too rural and religious and will be hard pressed to do well in GOP primaries north of Tennessee and west of Oklahoma. Plus Huckabee should get hammered on law and order issues. Hammered. Haley Barbour- no. He will not appeal to suburban voters in any of the 3 key states I mentioned. He should be a no-go from the start. Bobby Jindal - the Democrats would have a field day with him for one thing. Also, I don't see his appeal as reaching key swing voters in many key states. I really don't. Sarah Palin - believe it or not, she would have a chance against Barry, but not the best chance. If Palin does run in GOP primaries, she will do well. Don't dismiss her out of hand. But I think one of the following will emerge to beat her for the nomination. Mitt Romney - personally I think he'd be terrible, but putting that aside, he has a well-oiled political machine about to gear up here soon. Romney would be formidable. He could beat Barry. But he came across as a smarmy flip-flopper last time and I don't know how much he can change that impression among swing voters. His nomination might bring Michigan into play for the Republicans though. Still, I think there are 2 better options. Again neither of these gentlemen have announced they are running. But we can hope at least one does and performs competently against both Palin and Romney and emerges in mid-March or April 2012 as the presumptive nominee. Mitch Daniels - he could beat Barry under the right conditions. He's smart, successful, and likable. And most importantly, Daniels would appeal to moderate Democrat voters. Daniels would be fine. Of course, as I said, he may not be running. My top choice for beating Barry is Tim Pawlenty. I think the man could potentially get over 320 electoral votes in the right political atmosphere against Barry. He's just a year older than Barry so he wouldn't be seen as some stupid old white man by younger voters. Pawlenty also has a track record that should appeal to a nationally diverse electorate. And he can go toe-to-toe with Barry as far as connecting to regular voters when giving a campaign speech. There you go. We'll see over the next 3-5 months how many of these viable GOP candidates announce they are running.

By the way, none of the analysis above reflects who I personally would like to win - just who is most likely to win. My personal choice would be Ron or Rand Paul, obviously. But neither has any chance. So, ...

I've seen these constantly running ads for something called Little Fockers that is set to open here Wednesday. And anyone who pays to see this derivative piece of shit should be ashamed. It's nothing but a money grab for Stiller, De Niro, Streisand, and Hoffman. They're all better than this - even Streisand.

The rest just begins to fade by itself

That's a trick I learned though it took so long