The Election Forecast

Somewhere, Heath Ledger Is Not Happy

The big silly election is just days away now. And I can't believe what I'm about to write, but Willard Mitt Romney has a very good chance of winning. Something unthinkable to me just a month ago. I have spent a number of hours this week looking into polling data in a number of key states. The fact is that Romney could get over 290 electoral votes. Even more incredible is this - Romney could win even if he loses Ohio. I'm not saying Romney will win. But it is somewhat likely. Somehow. Putting my general disdain for both candidates aside when looking at the numbers, here is how Willard Mitt Romney could become the 45th POTUS. If you start with all the states John Sidney McCain won in 2008 and assume all of them will go to Romney, a very safe assumption I might add, he has 180. He only needs 90 more to get to 270. The first thing that has to happen is easy enough, Romney needs to win back Indiana and North Carolina. That's 26 electoral votes right there. Romney then needs 64 more. It's looking like there's a great chance Romney will win Florida and Virginia from Barry. That's 42 electoral votes. Romney only needs 22 more. And he could get them a number of ways. These are the states in play in my opinion - Ohio (18 votes), Wisconsin (10 votes), Colorado (9 votes), Iowa (6 votes), and New Hampshire (4 votes). Romney could get those last 22 even if he loses Ohio. It would be unlikely, but it could happen. Amazing...

I haven't paying any attention to the actual campaign. It's more unwatchable than a Sun Belt football game between the FIU Golden Panthers and the FAU Owls (a game that will be played later this month by the way - set your DVR accordingly). This campaign has been depressingly stupid for months. Not that I expected better. These "debates" they held were farces. They weren't debates. They featured 2 terrible debaters screaming nonsense at each other and the poor folks in the audiences. The Vice-Presidential debate at least had a high level of humor thanks to Joe Biden foaming at the mouth while trying to keep his medically enhanced boner in his pants. The only candidate of the 4 that came out of this process looking respectable was the kid from Wisconsin. Barry, Mitt, & Joe are sad in various ways. No matter what happens I think the sentiment among reasonable people is that at least it will all be over. No more hearing, "I'm Barry Obama and I approved these vicious lies." Or "I'm Mitt Romney and I approved coming across like the most liberal Republican to run for president since Richard Milhous Nixon." At least we can get back to endless commercials featuring Lebron James hawking cell phones.

And please remember this, this is actually important, whoever wins next week, it's not the end of the world. I don't vote. Why would I waste a perfectly nice Tuesday evening voting??? But if I did vote, my premise for voting Romney would be as follows: the guy in there now has epically failed, now Romney might also epically fail, but he might not. Why vote for a proven failure when the other fella might do better??? It's a sad way to decide a president, I'll grant you that. But it would be the most compelling reason to vote for Romney. Because on his own merits, there is little compelling about Romney. He seems like a bit of a douche, to be honest. Now, if our dear friend Barry does win reelection, don't get upset. It's not worth your effort. Why? Because seconds after claiming victory, Barry will be a lame duck. He'll be fighting with John Boner and his crew same as ever. Nothing will change, just 4 more years of misery for everyday folks. There's always that to look forward to. Good times...

On a lighter note, did you know that the Washington football team of the NFL will decide this election on Sunday afternoon against Cam Newton? It's true. Every election since 1940, if the Washington professional football team wins their final home game before the presidential election, the party in power stays in power. When they lose their final home game before the election, the other party swoops into power. I'm guessing Willard Mitt Romney will be the biggest Cam Newton fan in the world Sunday afternoon...

Sorry for the lack of posts here recently. I've been super busy getting ready for basketball season, both NBA and college. That and having a very middling year betting on football thus far. Alas, ...